Thursday, February 19, 2009

Palin 2012?

It has become increasingly easy for Democrats and some Republicans to blame the loss of John McCain in the 2008 election on his running mate, Sarah Palin. Since the election I cannot count the times that I have overheard people discussing the election and placing all the blame on Sarah Palin. Immediately following the election, most of the major news networks were also quick to blame Palin, to the point that she became very frustrated and appeared almost unstable in her post election interviews. I reject the notion that Governor Sarah Palin is the number one reason that Senator John McCain lost the 2008 Election.

After the election, I spent over 6 hours analyzing exit poll data from the election. Exit polls are taken by random voters immediately after they cast their vote. The data is compiled from polling locations nationwide and in this election cycle, 17,836 voters were polled, making the data extremely precise and reliable. The data strongly suggests that Palin was not the reason McCain lost. One question asked, "Who is Qualified To Be President if Necessary?" 91% of respondents who voted for Obama answered "Only Biden," while 96% of those who voted for McCain answered "Only Palin." More Republicans thought Palin would be qualified to be president then Democrats thought Biden would be qualified. Another question asked, "Is Biden Qualified
to be President if Necessary?" Only 71% of those who voted for Obama answered "yes" while 91% of those who voted for McCain answered "yes" to the question, "Is Palin Qualified to be President if Necessary?" This indicates that those who voted for McCain, mostly Republicans, had more confidence in Palin than those who voted for Obama, mostly Democrats, had confidence in Biden. This is only a fraction of data that indicates that Palin did not have a negative effect on McCain's bid for the presidency. I know from a personal perspective that Palin energized the GOP and Republicans who were not excited about McCain became excited when Palin was chosen as the running mate. I strongly believe that Palin was a positive factor of McCain's ticket. The exit poll data can be found at:


  1. I like your statistics, and I like that you provided the link to where the date is found. While, I do not agree with your statement and I will wear a Tina Fey 2012 shirt to class one day, I like how you present your arguement. I like you should post clip of the Palin Biden debate, that would be fun.

  2. So, then, why do you think he lost? (That could take a few posts, but, I'm interested in what you think)

  3. Some who have hopes in Palin have counseled her to spend the next four years with her head down just going to school, so to speak. Clearly she's smart and charismatic, yet if she surfaces again on the political scene, she needs to do so with a better grip on world history and politics, economic theory, and so forth. Moreover she needs to figure out how to provoke admiration without provoking an equal measures of hatred and disdain. My worries about Palin are these: she has a remarkable ability to fake what she does not know; she is divisive and seems to enjoy it. So my question for Nathan is this: Do you think Palin is so enamoured of her own success that she will blow off the idea of undertaking an educational agenda for herself ? Will she continue to practice divisive tactics? Or--more broadly put--what does Palin need to do, in your opinion, to EARN a role in party leadership? Can you also give us some insider news about what other Republicans think of her? I know that NYT columnist David Brooks does not like her at all. Why not? Is his dislike justified?

  4. People thought that she was qualified because she spoke like the average American. The American people think that just because someone carries on the American traditons such as hunting, fire arms, and language that they are qualified. People need to realize that the president isn't someone from your backyard that has no common sense, but rather someone that is intellectual and has new ideas. This goes back to what I say in my post... we have done the same things over and over and we get the same results... well if we don't like the results we are getting change what we are doing.